So I was a little early in calling for a CACB bounce (I almost always am). But now the stock has, indeed, reached my original projected range. Below is an update of the chart I posted back in October:
The stock has found support here but I’m waiting to see the company’s annual report before consulting my crystal ball again.
However, the larger question bouncing around in my brain right now is this: “If the stock market is a forward-looking mechanism/organism, what does it say when Central Oregon’s largest regional bank sees it’s stock decline over sixty percent?”
It almost feels like a movie; this recent storm feels foreboding…. LIV
So I was a little early in calling for a CACB bounce (I almost always am). But now the stock has, indeed, reached my original projected range. Below is an update of the chart I posted back in October:
The stock has found support here but I’m waiting to see the company’s annual report before consulting my crystal ball again.
However, the larger question bouncing around in my brain right now is this: “If the stock market is a forward-looking mechanism/organism, what does it say when Central Oregon’s largest regional bank sees it’s stock decline over sixty percent?”
It almost feels like a movie; this recent storm feels foreboding…. LIV
I don’t know if I have ever seen a more contrarian indicator than this new commerical from McDonald’s:
The Dollar, on a very long-term time frame, is about as oversold as it gets. In fact, it’s probably impossible to garner as much negative publicity as the dollar has received lately without reaching such an oversold reading. But MACD is positively diverging while the histograms are turing upwards (ever so slightly):
So, while the dollar may make new lows over the next couple of months, I firmly believe that it is in the process of forming a long-term bottom. And combined with the recent significant declines in real estate and stocks, our assets have to look awfully attractive to foreigners right now. LIV
I don’t know if I have ever seen a more contrarian indicator than this new commerical from McDonald’s:
The Dollar, on a very long-term time frame, is about as oversold as it gets. In fact, it’s probably impossible to garner as much negative publicity as the dollar has received lately without reaching such an oversold reading. But MACD is positively diverging while the histograms are turing upwards (ever so slightly):
So, while the dollar may make new lows over the next couple of months, I firmly believe that it is in the process of forming a long-term bottom. And combined with the recent significant declines in real estate and stocks, our assets have to look awfully attractive to foreigners right now. LIV
I’ve been hearing a lot of stories lately of people leaving town because they can no longer make a living in Bend. Amazingly, after years of overwhelming growth at High Lakes Elementary, my son’s second grade class has actually gotten smaller this year.
This is just one example, however, it’s obvious that builders, realtors, lenders, appraisers and title company officers are all feeling the pinch from a 50% decline in business over the past couple of years.
If things don’t get better soon, this trend may become an Exodus of JAH People (Just Arrived Here – to take advantage of the real estate gold rush) out of Bend. And if this happens, it raises the very real possibility of the current real estate recession becoming a real estate depression.
I’ve been hearing a lot of stories lately of people leaving town because they can no longer make a living in Bend. Amazingly, after years of overwhelming growth at High Lakes Elementary, my son’s second grade class has actually gotten smaller this year.
This is just one example, however, it’s obvious that builders, realtors, lenders, appraisers and title company officers are all feeling the pinch from a 50% decline in business over the past couple of years.
If things don’t get better soon, this trend may become an Exodus of JAH People (Just Arrived Here – to take advantage of the real estate gold rush) out of Bend. And if this happens, it raises the very real possibility of the current real estate recession becoming a real estate depression.
Bio: Jesse Felder founded Felder & Company in 2000 as an independent investment advisor. Jesse oversees both the company's proprietary investment research and managed investment accounts. He is also the editor of the company's monthly newsletter "The Felder Report."
