I recently mentioned the magazine cover indicator. Well here’s a beauty:

Is the worst for Wall Street now behind us?
LIV

I recently mentioned the magazine cover indicator. Well here’s a beauty:

Is the worst for Wall Street now behind us?
LIV

Bustin’ rhymes in 2008 like it’s 1998:

In 1998, LTCM nearly brought the financial world to its knees. John Meriwether was one of the lead architects of the disaster.

Today, Bear Stearns is pulling an LTCM and Meriwether is feeling the pain once again.

Ironically, this was one of the biggest hits of the year in 1998. Today I dedicate it to Mr. Meriwether:

LIV

Bustin’ rhymes in 2008 like it’s 1998:

In 1998, LTCM nearly brought the financial world to its knees. John Meriwether was one of the lead architects of the disaster.

Today, Bear Stearns is pulling an LTCM and Meriwether is feeling the pain once again.

Ironically, this was one of the biggest hits of the year in 1998. Today I dedicate it to Mr. Meriwether:

LIV

Bank of the Cascades released their annual financial statement and report earlier this month.

Highlights:

-The bank is now sitting with $55 million in non-performing assets (delinquent loans). These increased 1,700% in 2007 and are now 1,146 times higher than in 2005.

-The bank currently holds $687 million in real estate construction/lot development loans. These are loans to developers and speculators, not mortgages which are typically considered a better credit risk.

If only 10% of this real estate portfolio goes the way of Rennaisance Ridge (imho, a very real possibility), the bank may find itself in a situation where it can no longer be considered “well capitalized.”

And if the $&!# hits the fan in the local real estate market, as the mortgage insurers recently warned, there is a very real possibility the bank may buy the farm – and I don’t mean foreclose.
LIV

Bank of the Cascades released their annual financial statement and report earlier this month.

Highlights:

-The bank is now sitting with $55 million in non-performing assets (delinquent loans). These increased 1,700% in 2007 and are now 1,146 times higher than in 2005.

-The bank currently holds $687 million in real estate construction/lot development loans. These are loans to developers and speculators, not mortgages which are typically considered a better credit risk.

If only 10% of this real estate portfolio goes the way of Rennaisance Ridge (imho, a very real possibility), the bank may find itself in a situation where it can no longer be considered “well capitalized.”

And if the $&!# hits the fan in the local real estate market, as the mortgage insurers recently warned, there is a very real possibility the bank may buy the farm – and I don’t mean foreclose.
LIV

Gotta give credit where it’s due. Today’s lead business story in the Bulletin, “Bend Subdivision Faces Foreclosure,” is a straight-shooting look at the problems facing the local real estate market.

The story mainly focuses on the debacle at Renaissance Ridge but further into the story we find a few interesting facts:

-In the first few months of this year, home sales in Bend and Redmond are down 44% from the same time last year.

-Over the same time, default notices have risen 253%.

Still, prices are still well above fair value and it seems to me that this is only just the beginning of a correction that’s been long overdue.

This is what it feels like After the Goldrush:

LIV

Gotta give credit where it’s due. Today’s lead business story in the Bulletin, “Bend Subdivision Faces Foreclosure,” is a straight-shooting look at the problems facing the local real estate market.

The story mainly focuses on the debacle at Renaissance Ridge but further into the story we find a few interesting facts:

-In the first few months of this year, home sales in Bend and Redmond are down 44% from the same time last year.

-Over the same time, default notices have risen 253%.

Still, prices are still well above fair value and it seems to me that this is only just the beginning of a correction that’s been long overdue.

This is what it feels like After the Goldrush:

LIV

It looks as if we have our first official default by a large-scale builder. Renaissance Ridge is being repossessed:

View Larger Map

Here’s the official recording of the multi-million dollar default:









Props once again to the Bend Economy Bulletin Board for breaking the story.
LIV

It looks as if we have our first official default by a large-scale builder. Renaissance Ridge is being repossessed:

View Larger Map

Here’s the official recording of the multi-million dollar default:









Props once again to the Bend Economy Bulletin Board for breaking the story.
LIV