Archive for December, 2009

A Fitting Finish to a Disaster of a Decade

jessefelder | December 31, 2009 in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Today was the third worst final day of the year in history for stocks (via SentimenTrader). The S&P 500 closed below 1121, the 50% retracement level that's proven to be key resistance for the past month or so. I guess we should expect no less from the decade than for it to go out with a thud.

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A Fitting Finish to a Disaster of a Decade

jessefelder | in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Today was the third worst final day of the year in history for stocks (via SentimenTrader). The S&P 500 closed below 1121, the 50% retracement level that's proven to be key resistance for the past month or so. I guess we should expect no less from the decade than for it to go out with a thud.

Posted via email from jessefelder’s posterous


How the Best Stock Fund of the Decade Had the Worst Investor Returns

jessefelder | in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Ken Heebner rang up 18% per year in the CGM Focus Fund over the past ten years, despite operating in one of the worst equity investment environments in history, earning it the title "best stock fund of the decade." I'm a big fan of the focused approach to portfolio management; diversification beyond a certain point becomes nothing more than a cop out. If you want 500 stocks buy the index. If you want to do better than the index you have to focus only on the most attractive investment opportunities. Props to Heebner for having the balls to run an open-ended mutual fund this way.

One difficulty with managing focused portfolios, however, is that they are typically more volatile (but not necessarily riskier) than more diversified portfolios. From the looks of things, this had a detrimental effect on the fund's investors because they managed to find a way to lose 11% per year in the fund over the same time it rang up the best returns in the biz. How is this possible? Only by buying at the top and selling at the bottom. Amazing.

via wsj.com

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How the Best Stock Fund of the Decade Had the Worst Investor Returns

jessefelder | in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Ken Heebner rang up 18% per year in the CGM Focus Fund over the past ten years, despite operating in one of the worst equity investment environments in history, earning it the title "best stock fund of the decade." I'm a big fan of the focused approach to portfolio management; diversification beyond a certain point becomes nothing more than a cop out. If you want 500 stocks buy the index. If you want to do better than the index you have to focus only on the most attractive investment opportunities. Props to Heebner for having the balls to run an open-ended mutual fund this way.

One difficulty with managing focused portfolios, however, is that they are typically more volatile (but not necessarily riskier) than more diversified portfolios. From the looks of things, this had a detrimental effect on the fund's investors because they managed to find a way to lose 11% per year in the fund over the same time it rang up the best returns in the biz. How is this possible? Only by buying at the top and selling at the bottom. Amazing.

via wsj.com

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The Stupidest Idea of the Decade

jessefelder | in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

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Bear Ranks Thin Further

jessefelder | in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Jason Goepfert, sentiment research guru, posted the following chart today. Note the last time the bearish % was more than 2 standard deviations from its average: right at the March bottom when everyone and their mom were bears. Now we see the exact opposite; there's not a bear in sight.
via Sentiment's Edge

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The Stupidest Idea of the Decade

jessefelder | in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

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Bear Ranks Thin Further

jessefelder | in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Jason Goepfert, sentiment research guru, posted the following chart today. Note the last time the bearish % was more than 2 standard deviations from its average: right at the March bottom when everyone and their mom were bears. Now we see the exact opposite; there's not a bear in sight.
via Sentiment's Edge

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A Red Flag for the Nasdaq

jessefelder | December 30, 2009 in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

Here's an interesting divergence: as the Nasdaq roars to new highs (on the lightest volume in years) its advance/decline line, a sign of the internal strength or weakness of the index, fails to confirm.

See and download the full gallery on posterous

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No Fear

jessefelder | in Uncategorized | Comments (0)

The VIX, aka the “Fear Index,” is now down over 75% over the past year.

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